Instagram's Russian Decline
On September 1, 2025, the Russian influencer marketing market entered a new era. On this day, a ban on advertising on resources of organizations recognized as extremist came into force – primarily on Instagram (owned by Meta, banned in the Russian Federation).
It would seem that the market should have collapsed. Instagram was not just a platform – it was the main home for influencers: lifestyle, beauty, fashion, humor, fitness – all these niches grew and monetized there. Back in 2024, brands spent about 8.4 billion rubles on advertising on Instagram.
But the ban did not kill the market. It reformatted it.
The blockade became a trigger for a large-scale restructuring: bloggers massively migrated to new platforms, advertisers redistributed budgets, and the market itself moved from the "easy money" phase to a phase of professional maturation. What exactly happened, which platforms won, and who lost – we'll analyze in detail.
Part 1. Ban Chronicle: How It Happened
The ban on advertising on Instagram was years in the making. After Meta was recognized as an extremist organization in 2022, the social network was formally in a "gray zone": it was possible to use it, but advertising was risky. However, mass sanctions were not applied.
In April 2025, President Vladimir Putin signed a law that explicitly prohibited any advertising on the resources of banned organizations. On September 1, it came into force.
What exactly is prohibited?
The restrictions cover any commercial activity on Instagram:
- Direct promotional posts and stories with calls to action
- Native integrations (even without explicit labeling)
- Brand mentions in content, if there is a commercial background
- Partner materials and ambassador programs
What are the fines?
According to Article 14.3 of the Code of Administrative Offenses:
- For individuals – up to 2,500 rubles
- For officials – up to 20,000 rubles
- For legal entities – up to 500,000 rubles
Deputies have already proposed tightening the penalties: for individuals – up to 80,000 rubles, for legal entities – up to 1 million rubles.
The first fine has already been issued
On September 3, 2025, blogger Asya Sivokoneva published a video unboxing products from "Zolotoye Yabloko". The video was captioned "All bloggers after September 1". One user complained – and the Omsk FAS initiated a case.
This set a precedent. The market understood: the law works. And it began to adapt.
Part 2. Facts and Figures: What Happened to the Market
The market stopped growing
The main news of 2025 for influencer marketing is not a decline, but a halt in growth.
- In 2023, the market grew by 37% to 44 billion rubles
- In 2024, growth slowed to 15–20%
- The forecast for 2025 at the beginning of the year was optimistic: +25–30%
- Reality: growth of 8–10%, and with inflation – almost zero
- According to pessimistic forecasts – a reduction of 7–15%
As Vasily Yashchuk, director of the Creative division at Kokoc Group, notes: "For the first time in recent years, the market has not just slowed down – it has practically entered a stagnation zone."
Where did the money from Instagram go?
Before the blockade, Instagram accumulated, according to market estimates, from 20 to 30 billion rubles in advertising budgets annually.
It was expected that this money would be redistributed to other platforms. And indeed, according to Didenok Team, in August-September 2025:
- Telegram: +67% integrations
- YouTube: +40%
- TikTok, Twitch, Likee: collectively +32%
- VK: +18%
However, full replacement did not occur. Some of the budgets simply "disappeared" – went into native formats, gray schemes, or were cut due to economic uncertainty.
Blogger losses: from 40% to 70% of income
The figures speak for themselves. Bloggers who earned exclusively on Instagram lost up to 70% of their income. Those who managed to develop additional channels lost about 40%.
Grigory Zorin, founder of Hype Agency, confirms: bloggers who worked exclusively with Instagram will lose up to 50% of their income.
At the same time, there are also those who were almost unaffected. Blogger Andrey Glazunov (2 million on Instagram, over 10 million on TikTok, 365 thousand on YouTube and Telegram) states that his income has not dropped – he has long developed several social networks.
Part 3. Migration: Where Bloggers and Audiences Went
Instagram is not dead – it still has an audience, and many bloggers continue to maintain pages to stay in touch with subscribers. But advertising budgets and activity have shifted.
Telegram – the main beneficiary
Telegram has become the primary recipient platform.
According to Getblogger (part of MTS AdTech), the distribution of migration in September 2025 looked like this:
- Telegram – 32%
- VKontakte – 25%
- YouTube – 20%
- Rutube – 11%
- TikTok – 7%
59% of bloggers have already switched to Telegram, and another 22% plan to do so.
The influencer marketing market on Telegram is growing rapidly. According to forecasts, its volume will reach 18 billion rubles by the end of 2025, and 28 billion rubles by 2026.
30% of advertisers have already increased their budgets for Telegram in 2025, and 47% of companies have such plans for 2026.
Russian platforms: LOOKY, VK, "Zen"
Russian platforms are developing in parallel. By the end of 2025, several millionaire bloggers moved to LOOKY (a Russian social network with an interface similar to Instagram):
- Nikolai Serdyukov (1.1 million)
- Evgenia Krivtsova (2.6 million)
- Lera Tumanova (2.2 million)
- Nikita Serov (3.6 million)
- Artemy Lebedev (1.4 million)
The function of transferring subscriptions from Instagram allows bloggers to retain up to 15% of their audience at the start.
VKontakte remains the largest platform by reach – about 77 million daily users. However, advertisers note difficulties with interpreting views and a weak correlation between reach and sales.
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